What a difference a year makes.
In our inaugural edition of Latin America Focus, produced by the Latin America Group at White & Case in the autumn of 2021, we offered scant good news. COVID-19 had thumped Latin American business harder than it had companies anywhere else, contracting Latin America's 2020 economies by nearly 7 percent, compared to a global average contraction of 3 percent. Latin America also was riding a rollercoaster of mounting populism and resource nationalism in 2021, and feeling the uncertainty that accompanies such trends.
Despite the then-present challenges, in that edition we highlighted a number of reasons to anticipate a LatAm resurgence in 2022, including an expected investment push into the region in certain sectors; the search for yields in emerging markets, commitments to mitigate climate change by global natural resources and energy companies; and the technology-driven push to digitize an increasingly global world economy.
How inspiring it has been to see most of this resurgence flower throughout the year since.
In this Fall 2022 edition of Latin America Focus, partners in our Latin America Group have written articles based on their personal experiences in the trenches and on market research that look forward to 2023 and together reveal the continuation—and perhaps acceleration—of many of the same global megatrends that propelled selective investment growth in the region in 2022.
Chief among these megatrends is Latin America's forceful digitalization efforts. The region's large, young and habitually connected population, the current global financial equity investor liquidity and related resilient M&A activity and its booming fintech industry are effectively working together to position Latin America as a gigantic growth market for the tech sector over the next five years. In the tech hotbeds of Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico, the number of tech startups has nearly tripled in the past five years, and across Latin America, technology transactions accounted for more than 40 percent of M&A deal value through the first half of 2022.
Not far behind the technology deal growth is the global energy transition; already Latin America's abundant wind and solar energy sources bolster its economy, attracting investment and creating new job opportunities. Still a major global player in oil & gas, the region looks well placed to emerge as a key global producer of green hydrogen. And as the energy transition picks up pace, carbon markets are starting to emerge across the region, teasing a future wherein Latin America stands as an innovative hub of carbon market activity and low-carbon development for the benefit of the entire world.
To be sure, challenges remain in both energy and tech: National hydrocarbons companies in the region, which account for a massive slice of hydrocarbon production there, continue to prioritize energy security over energy transition. Latin American countries (Brazil perhaps excepted) lag behind their North American and European counterparts on investment in digital infrastructure and addressing the digital divide between rich and poor. Despite the fintech boom, Latin Americans still have relatively little access to banking services and secure online payment gateways. Latin American countries also lag on developing intermediary liability frameworks and related consumer protections that offer security and certainty to digital platforms and their users.
The White & Case Latin America Group has produced this publication to provide market insights from our practical experiences and proprietary research that could be valuable to senior decision-makers eyeing the region for opportunities. I hope that you enjoy reading these insights and will contact us if there are any topics that you would like us to cover in future editions of Latin America Focus.
Latin America is closely aligned with global megatrends and 2023 will likely see the continuation—and perhaps even acceleration—of these trends in the region
In a region suffering from global trade dislocations, inflation, higher interest rates and complex political cycles, dealmakers remain cautiously optimistic that the transition to digital services across the region will create significant M&A opportunities in the technology sector.
Brazil leads the way with regulation, Argentina and Colombia follow court-established principles, while Mexico lags behind.
Latin American fintech companies are uniquely placed to pioneer new and better approaches to compliance across the region.
Latin America increases involvement in compliance and voluntary carbon markets activity.
From the Washington Consensus of the 1990s to the Biden administration's recently proposed Americas Partnership for Economic Prosperity, policymakers seem to have lost some of their ambition.
